Flatbush Avenue Scouting Bureau

Matchup desk

Line up two 2026 quarterbacks, two Clay roster grades, and each club’s offense. ScoutScore is this year’s tape. Clay grades are the same 2026 positional ratings as the 2025 desk — higher is better. EPA per drive, yards per play, yards per carry, and yards per pass attempt are Through Week 3, 2026 regular season. Special teams and kneels are out of the EPA. Offense rank 1 is the most efficient. Defense rank 1 allows the least.

Side One

2026 quarterback

Club

Off EPA/drive

+0.964

Rank 5 of 32

Def EPA/drive

-0.821

Rank 3 of 32

Yds/play

5.5

Rank 11 of 32

Yds/carry

4.2

Rank 15 of 32

Yds/pass att

7.6

Rank 9 of 32

Side Two

2026 quarterback

Club

Off EPA/drive

+2.075

Rank 1 of 32

Def EPA/drive

-0.224

Rank 14 of 32

Yds/play

7.3

Rank 1 of 32

Yds/carry

5.1

Rank 4 of 32

Yds/pass att

9.5

Rank 2 of 32

Matchup Desk Predicts

San Francisco should win.

Brock Purdy and the club. Slight edge. 59% of the scale, not a win probability.

Side One scale-18

Not the call

Jacksonville

Trevor Lawrence

ScoutScore +0.27 · club +1.78

Slight edge

San Francisco

Brock Purdy

ScoutScore +0.26 · club +2.30

San Francisco0Jacksonville

Quarterback · 60%

+0.27 vs +0.26 ScoutScore

Team · 40%

-51

+1.78 vs +2.30 combined EPA/drive

2026 quarterback

Same tape as the board. Difference is Side One minus Side Two. OTR is on-target rate.

Metric	Lawrence	Purdy	Diff
SSGPP	A	A	—
ScoutScore	+0.27	+0.26	+0.01
OTR	79%	76%	+3 pts
Scouted	3	3	0

Clay roster grades

Mike Clay’s 2026 group ratings. Total is the sum of ten groups. Higher is better.

Jacksonville

San Francisco

Jacksonville

San Francisco

INT DL

EDGE

OB LB

Efficiency

EPA per drive is the sum of EPA on a drive, divided by drives. Yards per play, per carry, and per pass attempt are the season rates. Rank 1–32. Defense rank 1 is the best defense, not the highest number.

Metric	Jacksonville	San Francisco	Diff
Off EPA/drive	+0.964#5	+2.075#1	-1.111
Def EPA/drive	-0.821#3	-0.224#14	-0.597
Yards/play	5.5#11	7.3#1	-1.8
Yards/carry	4.2#15	5.1#4	-0.9
Yards/pass att	7.6#9	9.5#2	-1.9
Off drives	27	26	1
Def drives	28	27	1

Key injuries

Out, doubtful, and questionable on the ESPN injury wire for the club in each selector. Injured reserve is listed under them — those players are out. The desk checks again every day at 6:00 p.m. Eastern, and immediately if the last copy is older than the most recent bell.

Checking the wire. Next check Sun, 6:00 PM EDT.

Jacksonville

Pulling the report.

San Francisco

Pulling the report.

Schematic blueprint

Offense shows 11, 12, 13, 21, and 22 personnel, under center, and run/pass. Defense shows blitz rate, nickel/dime rate, and coverage. A high 11-personnel offense against a defense that rarely plays nickel is the mismatch the desk is looking for. The public personnel table does not split EPA by grouping, so that column is blank and the clash uses the rates themselves.

Jacksonville

Offense personnel

54%—

33%—

12%—

0%—

Under center

47.3%

Pass

50.3%

Run

49.7%

Defense

Blitz

25%

Nickel/dime

69%

Man

20.8%

Zone

71.4%

Middle closed

47%

Middle open

50%

San Francisco

Offense personnel

33%—

15%—

0%—

44%—

6%—

Under center

58.1%

Pass

51.9%

Run

48.1%

Defense

Blitz

24.5%

Nickel/dime

59%

Man

9.8%

Zone

84.5%

Middle closed

56.4%

Middle open

39.1%

Jacksonville offense vs San Francisco defense

San Francisco is in nickel or dime 59% of the time, more often than Jacksonville actually lines up in 11 (54%). The defense is lighter than this offense’s base look.

San Francisco offense vs Jacksonville defense

Jacksonville is in nickel or dime 69% of the time, more often than San Francisco actually lines up in 11 (33%). The defense is lighter than this offense’s base look.

Sharp Football personnel charting, 2026 through Sept. 29 (Week 3 in the book). Kneels, spikes, and plays with no personnel tag are out. Play counts are the published rate times their play total. EPA by grouping is not in that public table, so it is left blank. Sharp Football defensive tendencies and coverage rates, published Sept. 29, 2026. Nickel is their sub-package rate (nickel and dime). Cover-2 and Cover-3 shells are not split out in the public table. nflverse play-by-play, 2026 Weeks 1–3. Under center is the non-shotgun share of runs and passes, kneels and spikes removed.

Coaching advantage

Ranks are 1–32. Lower is better. The head coach rank is Pro Football Mania’s Coaching Direction order. Offensive and defensive coordinator ranks are that site’s offensive and defensive ratings, placed on a 1–32 scale. The numerical scores are not used. The coaching mean is the average of the three ranks, then re-ranked 1–32. These rankings are not the Bureau’s. They are Pro Football Mania’s, as of September 22, 2026.

Seat	Jacksonville	San Francisco
Head coach	Liam Coen#16	Kyle Shanahan#8
Offensive coordinator	Grant Udinski#13	Klay Kubiak#6
Defensive coordinator	Anthony Campanile#15	Raheem Morris#8
Coaching mean	14.67#13	7.33#4

San Francisco has the coaching advantage, #4 against #13.

Offense vs. defense, EPA/drive

Right is a better offense. Up is a better defense (less EPA allowed). Crosshairs are the league average. Only the two clubs on the desk are labeled — hover any other dot for the club, the number, and the rank.

Weaker offenseOff EPA/drive →

ScoutScore per play vs. club offense

Each dot is a graded quarterback. Vertical is his club’s offensive EPA per drive, so two QBs on the same team share a height. Gold rings are the desk.